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SUMMARY:Forecasting the Onset Time of the Second Maximum of Proton Enhance
 ments Using Solar-Wind Kinematics and a Quantum Regression Neural Network 
 (RQNN)
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20261029T135000Z
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20261029T140500Z
DTSTAMP;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20261103T142509Z
UID:indico-contribution-6209@cern.ch
DESCRIPTION:Speakers: Igor Davydenkov ()\nThe aim of this work is to forec
 ast the onset time of the second maximum of proton enhancements associated
  with the transport of particles by solar-wind structures. The "zeroth-ord
 er" forecast is based on the kinematic parameters of the solar wind measur
 ed at the L1 Lagrange point\, and is subsequently refined by machine-learn
 ing methods. The difficulty of this problem lies in the nonlinear\, non-st
 ationary relationships between proton-flux and solar-wind parameters\, on 
 the one hand\, and the lack of a training base large enough to build a con
 ventional regression or neural-network model\, on the other. We therefore 
 used a quantum regression model\, RQNN\, in which the input heliophysical 
 parameters are encoded as phase shifts of the wavefunctions of emulated qu
 bits. As an example\, consider the prediction of the second maximum in the
  proton event of 10–11 May 2024\, which involved the catch-up (cannibali
 zation) of a slower CME (≈628 km/s\, launched on 8 May at 22:24 UT) by a
  faster one (≈1711 km/s\, launched on 9 May at 09:24 UT) at a distance o
 f ≈0.31 AU. Advection of the merged structure to Earth at the OMNI solar
 -wind speed (684 km/s) predicts the onset of the second proton-flux maximu
 m at about 09:33 UT on 11 May\, whereas the actual (GOES-cross-validated A
 RT-XC/Spektr-RG) maximum is observed at 07:33 UT on 11 May\, i.e.\, about 
 2 hours earlier. RQNN\, in turn\, predicts the second maximum at 06:58 UT 
 on 11 May\, which is about 1 h 25 min (1.4 h) closer to the actual value\,
  reducing the residual from ≈2.0 h to ≈0.6 h.\n\nhttps://indico.partic
 le.mephi.ru/event/626/contributions/6209/
LOCATION: Conference Hall 3
URL:https://indico.particle.mephi.ru/event/626/contributions/6209/
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